Commercial · Agent 02
Revenue & Predictive Pricing
Pickup pace, forward demand and AI rate-band recommendations for the next 14 days.
ADR (MTD)
฿4,720
▼ 5.8% vs LY
RevPAR
฿3,729
▼ 8.9% vs LY
Pickup vs LY (next 30d)
-12.4%
▼ 12.4% vs LY
Direct Share
14%
▲ 2.1% vs LYTarget 18%
12-month Demand Forecast (% occupancy)
Channel Mix
Next 14 Days · AI Rate Recommendations
| Date | Current ADR | Recommended | Δ | Forecast Occ | Confidence | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 | ฿4,200 | ฿4,521 | ▲ 321 | 55% | 79% | normal |
| 05-23 | ฿4,488 | ฿4,882 | ▲ 394 | 59% | 70% | normal |
| 05-24 | ฿4,705 | ฿5,140 | ▲ 435 | 62% | 79% | normal |
| 05-25 | ฿4,798 | ฿5,225 | ▲ 427 | 65% | 80% | normal |
| 05-26 | ฿4,746 | ฿5,171 | ▲ 425 | 67% | 76% | normal |
| 05-27 | ฿4,559 | ฿4,841 | ▲ 282 | 67% | 77% | compression |
| 05-28 | ฿4,285 | ฿4,514 | ▲ 229 | 66% | 88% | normal |
| 05-29 | ฿3,990 | ฿4,361 | ▲ 371 | 64% | 93% | normal |
| 05-30 | ฿3,746 | ฿4,030 | ▲ 284 | 60% | 93% | normal |
| 05-31 | ฿3,613 | ฿4,071 | ▲ 458 | 57% | 93% | normal |
| 06-01 | ฿4,425 | ฿4,874 | ▲ 449 | 71% | 82% | normal |
| 06-02 | ฿4,577 | ฿4,951 | ▲ 374 | 67% | 79% | soft |
| 06-03 | ฿4,832 | ฿5,214 | ▲ 382 | 64% | 85% | normal |
| 06-04 | ฿5,129 | ฿5,594 | ▲ 465 | 62% | 73% | normal |
Neopetal AI InsightCompression detected on May 27 (HSBC + India wedding overlap). Recommend lifting rate band ฿+600 on Premier rooms and closing 1-night LOS. Confidence 92%.
Thai contextChina inbound is still −38% vs 2019; India & GCC backfilling but at −9% ADR. Baht weakened to 37.2/USD this week — adds ~3% headwind for USD-priced FIT contracts. Consider locking Q4 wholesale in THB.