Finance · Agent 07
Hotel Planning & Forecast Model
Driver-based 12-month forecast: occupancy × ADR → revenue → cost stack → GOP. Toggle Thai scenarios.
12-mo Revenue
฿316M
12-mo GOP
฿33M
GOP %
10.4%
Avg Occupancy
71%
12-month P&L Stack (฿M)
Sensitivity (Δ GOP ฿M)
Monthly Driver Grid
| Month | Occ % | Rev ฿M | COGS | Payroll | Other | GOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun'26 | 64% | 23.33 | 4.20 | 10.76 | 7.68 | 0.69 |
| Jul'26 | 62% | 22.97 | 4.14 | 10.68 | 7.64 | 0.52 |
| Aug'26 | 60% | 22.55 | 4.06 | 10.60 | 7.60 | 0.29 |
| Sep'26 | 58% | 22.03 | 3.97 | 10.52 | 7.56 | -0.01 |
| Oct'26 | 65% | 24.85 | 4.47 | 10.80 | 7.70 | 1.88 |
| Nov'26 | 78% | 29.85 | 5.37 | 11.32 | 7.96 | 5.20 |
| Dec'26 | 86% | 32.78 | 5.90 | 11.64 | 8.12 | 7.12 |
| Jan'27 | 84% | 31.73 | 5.71 | 11.56 | 8.08 | 6.38 |
| Feb'27 | 80% | 29.83 | 5.37 | 11.40 | 8.00 | 5.06 |
| Mar'27 | 75% | 27.53 | 4.96 | 11.20 | 7.90 | 3.48 |
| Apr'27 | 70% | 25.28 | 4.55 | 11.00 | 7.80 | 1.93 |
| May'27 | 65% | 23.10 | 4.16 | 10.80 | 7.70 | 0.44 |
Neopetal AI InsightUnder the tourist-drop scenario, Aug–Sep slips into GOP loss territory. Trigger contingency: freeze hiring, defer ฿8M of capex, push the India/GCC campaigns. Base case ends FY27 at GOP ฿78M.
Thai contextThe model assumes baht at 36.5/USD, minimum wage ฿400/day, OTA commission 18%, and a 2026 inbound recovery of 84% vs 2019. Each 1 baht weaker FX adds ~฿1.2M to USD-priced FIT revenue but ~฿0.9M to imported F&B and energy costs.